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Pantera Investors

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CASO PANTERA INVESTORS
Bill Smith es uno de los propietarios de la empresa Pantera Investors, es una firma dedicada a inversiones en bienes inmuebles, establecida en Chicago tiene 5 años de experiencia en el mercado. Buscando nuevas fuentes de ingresos, detectaron un inmueble, recomendado por un amigo de Bill, detectaron que está a muy buen precio, por debajo del precio de mercado, el edificio cuenta con una ocupación del 90%, localizado en una zona de Chicago especializada en oficinas, la cual esta en crecimiento aun precio de 10.4 millones de dólares. El mercado estaba contraído y son pocas las oportunidades que se tienen. Bill sabía que había muchos factores que podían echar a perder la negociación. Como lo hacían cada semana con varías propiedades, tendrían que escarbar más a fondo en los números. ¿Cuáles eran los fundamentos económicos del mercado? ¿Quiénes eran los arrendatarios del inmueble? ¿En tres años podrían obtener una ganancia con este contrato? ¿Podría obtener los rendimientos que sus inversionistas exigían? Y, en medio de una contracción del crédito, ¿podrían conseguir financiamiento? La Propiedad había sido remodelada hace 3 años por lo que no iba a ser necesario hacer inversiones mayores en remodelaciones o mantenimiento. La ubicación de inmueble la hacia atractiva para los arrendatarios y no estaba en un mercado sobre ofertado. El edificio estaba ubicado a una distancia de 4.3 kilómetros de un centro comercial que servía a varias regiones. Comenzó por investigar un crédito otorgado por un banco local. Con base en su conocimiento de mercado el banco confió en que Pantera Investors podría obtener un préstamo por el 65%; dicho préstamo lo otorgaría a una tasa de 6.75%. El préstamo se amortizaría en un esquema de 25 años. El préstamo se pagaría en mensualidades iguales y -como era ya usual en los apretados mercados de crédito- conllevaría una penalización del 3% sobre todos los saldos anticipados, si el préstamo se liquidaba íntegramente antes de su vencimiento. Como la mayor parte de las instituciones de bienes inmuebles de capital privado, Pantera Investors no quería invertir una gran cantidad de su propio efectivo en este contrato, por lo que adquirió la mayor parte del capital a invertir a partir de sociedades comanditarias. De esta manera, asumió que el 95% de la inversión requerida de capital lo aportarían inversionistas externos, y que Pantera Investors invertiría hasta 5%. Si se requirieran flujos de capital durante el periodo de mantenimiento, también dedujo que estos flujos se repartirían 95/5. Los inversionistas externos de capital recibirían un rendimiento preferencial de 8% (o "pref'). Pantera Investors también ganaría una comisión anual de 1.5%, cargada contra el capital inicial (externo) bajo gestión. Esta comisión se tomaría del flujo de efectivo operativo de la propiedad. 1

Dada la tarea de desarrollar un modelo financiero, Bill comenzó a recabar los detalles que iba a necesitar para realizar una proyección de flujo de efectivo (pro-forma). El reto consistía en realizar hipótesis realistas acerca de los flujos de efectivo que estaban asociados a la propiedad, Tomo la renta a futuro y los gastos. Como le advirtió su profesor de finanzas de bienes inmuebles, "Los analistas financieros que son hábiles, pueden hacer que una hoja de cálculo lo justifique todo -así que piensa muy bien tus hipótesis." Su plan consistía en desarrollar un escenario del valor comparativo del mercado con base en las expectativas que él tenía sobre lo que podría ocurrir. De esta forma podría entonces ver cuan sensibles eran los resultados a las variantes de sus hipótesis, así como unos cuantos escenarios adversos específicos. La estabilidad del inquilino tenía una importancia especial en el marco de la economía de recesión; los propietarios de los bienes inmuebles estaban siendo fuertemente golpeados por los pagos morosos y por los bienes inmuebles que estaban desocupados, mientras los arrendatarios caían en bancarrota. El valor de los alquileres reveló que los inquilinos parecían conformar una mezcla estable y diversificada, que incluía a la principal compañía local de contabilidad de Illinois, la oficina matriz y la principal sucursal de un importante banco local, una asociación de comercio del CFA, un grupo que brinda servicios de asesoría en inversiones, una importante institución de créditos automotrices y un grupo nacional que ofrece servicios de administración de demandas y riesgos. Bill sabía que la estabilidad del inquilino estaba conformada por un conjunto especialmente delicado de hipótesis que se debían desarrollar, ya que parecía que nadie sabía cuándo llegaría una recuperación económica, y era difícil saber cómo les iría a estos inquilinos, en particular, durante los próximos años. Para comenzar con la proyección pro-forma, Bill leyó con cuidado cada uno de los contratos de arrendamiento. Todos estaban fechados al 1 de enero de años diversos y vencerían el 31 de diciembre del año de término del contrato de arrendamiento. Los contratos de arrendamiento estipulaban aumentos del 2% anual a la renta. Como propietario, Pantera Investors sería el responsable de pagar todos los gastos operativos y los inquilinos le rembolsarían una cantidad fija (por pie cuadrado), que dependía del tipo de contrato de arrendamiento que tuvieran, ver tabla con el detalle de los inquilinos, pies cuadrados y precio por pie de los gastos a rembolsar. El precio de arrendamiento que tenían era de $ 22 por pie cuadrado, de forma anual. Inquilino Compañía de Seguros Shore Bank & Trust Co. Despacho Contable Despacho de abogados Despacho de arquitectos Consultores Financieros Suite 102 (Actualmente desocupada) Pies Cuadrados 9,959 44,280 10,250 2,844 6,741 3,612 2,709 Gastos Rembolsados por pie cuadrado anual $ 2.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 2.00 $ 2.00 $ 2.00 $ 5.00

2

Suite 107 (Actualmente desocupada) Suite 205 (Actualmente desocupada)

2,709 2,709

$ $

5.00 5.00

Bill quería que ningún contrato de arrendamiento expirara durante los próximos dos años y que no más de dos contratos de arrendamiento vencieran durante el mismo año, con lo que se reducía el riesgo de alta concentración de bienes inmuebles desocupados. A partir de lo que había aprendido, todos los inquilinos estaban contentos con la administración (con la que Pantera Investors planeaba quedarse después de la compra) por lo que con toda seguridad renovarían sus contratos conforme fueran llegando las fechas de vencimiento. Al comparar lo atractivo que resultaba el mercado local con la debilidad general de los mercados de arrendamiento, siendo éste el aspecto más importante, Bill concluyó que todos los contratos de arrendamiento se renovarían en un 2% por arriba de la renta base del año anterior y que mantendrían el mismo nivel de rembolso de gastos. Bill también pensó que era razonable presuponer que Pantera Investors podría arrendar uno de los tres espacios desocupados, justo a tiempo para cobrar la renta durante el primer año en que fueran dueños de la propiedad. Aún más, concluyó que uno de los dos espacios desocupados restantes se alquilaría en el Año 2, y que el último espacio se rentaría en el Año 3. Para determinar la tasa de arrendamiento para los nuevos contratos, Bill estudió las recientes tendencias del área relativas a la desocupación y a las de arrendamiento. Para fines del segundo trimestre de 2009, la tasa de arrendamiento era de $21.80 por pie cuadrado, pero Bill sintió que durante los siguientes dos años, $21 por año, sería tanto lo prudente como lo realista debido a la desaceleración del mercado y que estos nuevos contratos de arrendamiento no sufrirían aumentos en la renta anual. Observó, a partir de los estados financieros de la propiedad, que los gastos operativos totales apenas alcanzaban 61% de los ingresos por rentas cobradas, por lo que utilizó este coeficiente para proyectar los gastos operativos del Año 1. Bill pensó que estos gastos eran fijos, es decir, independientes del nivel de desocupación, y que aumentarían en un 2.5% anual al considerarse en el flujo. Si en tres, cuatro o cinco años salían del contrato, lo más probable sería que Pantera Investors no necesitara hacer ninguna mejora importante a la propiedad, por lo que Bill no incluyó estos gastos en el escenario del valor comparativo del mercado. Bill también necesitaba un plan para la salida de Pantera Investors. Calculaba el precio de venta del Inmueble aplicando una tasa de capitalización de salida sobre el ingreso neto operativo proyectado para el siguiente año. Por ejemplo, una venta en el Año 3 se proyectaría a un precio igual al ingreso neto operativo del Año 4 dividido por una tasa de capitalización de salida. Con base en la experiencia de Bill y del resto del equipo de Pantera Investors, Bill consideró un tasa de capitalización de salida de 8.4% era suficiente. La tasa de impuestos es del 30% Favor de preparar un flujo de efectivo del proyecto con los supuestos establecidos por Bill, considerando la venta en el año 3.

3

¿Cuál es el costo de capital? ¿Cuál es el valor Presente neto del proyecto al año 3? ¿Cuál es la TIR del proyecto al año 3? Preparar una tabla con las mensualidades del crédito solicitado Descontar del Flujo los primeros 3 años el pago de las mensualidades y en el año 3 considerar el pago de la deuda anticipada. ¿Cuál es la TIR para el Banco? Considerar el flujo solo para el banco ¿Cuál es la TIR para Pantera Investments al año 3? ¿Le conviene hacer la inversión? ¿Por qué? ¿Qué otras consideraciones o conceptos debería incluir en el análisis?

4…...

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