Premium Essay

Moul

In: Computers and Technology

Submitted By medsalimt
Words 791
Pages 4
Specialty Toys, Inc.

WEATHER TEDDY
Case study:
Specialty Toys, Inc. aims to identify the best order quantity of its new product “Weather Teddy” to meet with the demand of the market for this kind of products. The Management department sort out different propositions of quantities to order from the Taiwanese manufacturer. The aim of this case study is to perform statistical studies on the propositions of the Management department in order to perform a recommendation for the best quantity to order associated with the best profit projections.
PROCEDURE:
FIRST:
As indicated in the memo of the Management department, we need to use the sales forecaster’s prediction de approximate the demand distribution.
We assume “X” to be the demand of the new toy. X follows a normal distribution with a mean “µ=20,000” and a standard deviation “σ” (unknown).
As stated before, Specialty’s senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 unites with a 95% probability percentage that demand would be between 10,000 and 30,000 units: P(10,000≤X≤30,000) = 0.95
We know that the Z-score formula is: z=(X-μ)/σ so the probability can be written as follows: P((10000-μ)/σ ≤ (X-μ)/σ ≤ (30000-μ)/σ ) = 0.95 P((10000-20000)/σ ≤ Z ≤ (30000-20000)/σ) = 0.95
From tables of areas under the standard normal curve with a 95% prediction score:
(30000-20000)/σ = 1.96 σ = (30000-20000)/1.96 =10000/1.96 = 5102
So the demand “X” follows a ND with a mean “µ=20,000” and a standard deviation “σ=5102”.

The distribution is characterized by the following sketch using Excel software:

SECOND:
We need to compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities proposed by the managements, which clearly consists in computing the probabilities for each value of the quantity suggested “Y”. The probability needed is the probability of X to be greater…...

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