Premium Essay


In: Computers and Technology

Submitted By medsalimt
Words 791
Pages 4
Specialty Toys, Inc.

Case study:
Specialty Toys, Inc. aims to identify the best order quantity of its new product “Weather Teddy” to meet with the demand of the market for this kind of products. The Management department sort out different propositions of quantities to order from the Taiwanese manufacturer. The aim of this case study is to perform statistical studies on the propositions of the Management department in order to perform a recommendation for the best quantity to order associated with the best profit projections.
As indicated in the memo of the Management department, we need to use the sales forecaster’s prediction de approximate the demand distribution.
We assume “X” to be the demand of the new toy. X follows a normal distribution with a mean “µ=20,000” and a standard deviation “σ” (unknown).
As stated before, Specialty’s senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 unites with a 95% probability percentage that demand would be between 10,000 and 30,000 units: P(10,000≤X≤30,000) = 0.95
We know that the Z-score formula is: z=(X-μ)/σ so the probability can be written as follows: P((10000-μ)/σ ≤ (X-μ)/σ ≤ (30000-μ)/σ ) = 0.95 P((10000-20000)/σ ≤ Z ≤ (30000-20000)/σ) = 0.95
From tables of areas under the standard normal curve with a 95% prediction score:
(30000-20000)/σ = 1.96 σ = (30000-20000)/1.96 =10000/1.96 = 5102
So the demand “X” follows a ND with a mean “µ=20,000” and a standard deviation “σ=5102”.

The distribution is characterized by the following sketch using Excel software:

We need to compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities proposed by the managements, which clearly consists in computing the probabilities for each value of the quantity suggested “Y”. The probability needed is the probability of X to be greater…...

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Cyrus the Great

...“self‑flattering opinions”? What are we to make of the eyes of Doctor T. J. Eckleburg, which hold such a prominent position in the novel’s imagery but could be taken to represent so many different ideas? The eyes of Doctor T. J. Eckleburg are, in fact, only one of many ambiguous images in a novel dense with vague, evocative descriptions that encourage read‑ ers to project their own meanings in interpreting them. For example, what is a “pale gold odor” or a “sparkling odor” (96; ch. 5)? What does it mean that a “gleam of hope” is “damp” (29; ch. 2)? What should we make of Gatsby’s “blue gardens” (43; ch. 3) or the hair that lies across Daisy’s cheek “like a dash of blue paint” (90; ch. 5)? How can Daisy’s voice, “struggl[ing] through the heat,” “moul[d] its senselessness into forms” (125; ch. 7), and what forms are thus pro‑ duced? In addition, Nick’s descriptions often acknowledge their own inability to provide concrete, specific details by their frequent use of the words indefinable, uncommunicable, unutterable, ineffable, and inexplicable, an evocative diction that reaches the height of its ambiguity in such phrases as “[t]hat unfamiliar yet rec‑ ognizable look was back again in Gatsby’s face” (141; ch. 7). If Nick can’t define, communicate, utter, or explain what he has in mind, then readers must imagine for themselves what he means, and such gaps in the text invite us to project our own experience and desires in order to make meaning. That The Great Gatsby easily supports......

Words: 221284 - Pages: 886

Premium Essay

Child and Abuse and Who the Abusers Are

...collaborate with Prevent Child Abuse Pennsylvania. Then I will contact Senator Vance’s office and ask her staff who is their opposition is and who they think I should approach first. Then my colleagues and I will research these people to see what approach would be best. After that we will prepare and present a short presentation (about 2 minutes) using simple language with personal stories and facts about their constituents. This bill was referred to the committee of children and youth. The legislators on this committee are Ryan P Aument, Rosemary M. Brown, Jim Christiana, Matt Gabler, C. Adam Harris, Fred Keller, Todd Rock, Joseph F. Brennan, Angel Cruz, Maria P Donatucci Patrick J.Harkins, Steve Samuelson, Ronald G Waters, Kate Harper, Dan Moul, Thomas P. Murt, Louise Williams Bishop, Michelle F. Brownlee. Ryan P Aument is republican, and is serving Lancaster County. He has served in the United States Army as a second lieutenant and earned a Bronze Star for his meritorious service and actions against enemy forces. June of 2008 he married Kate Smith, who is a teacher at the Milton Hershey School, they have a young son named Jack. Everything has been done in the past to there is nothing new that can be done using the old and proven ways is best. For example, making a personal contact with key legislators, establishing a good relationship with legislative staff, and knowing the background of legislator. Communicating the issue simply and quickly, and knowing both sides......

Words: 1627 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Personality and Substance Use

...Tory A. Eisenlohr-Moul, Erin C. Walsh, Richard J. Charnigo, Donald R. Lynam, and Ruth A. Baer. The test was given to on two hundred and ninety-six undergraduate students and completed using the Five-Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ). Test Review: Personality and Substance Use There are various ways to obtain information about a person’s personality when conducting research. Observation is one of those methods. Observation is the most used and most understood form of personality assessment and can be made through a controlled environment or in a natural environment (Aiken, & Groth-Marnat, 2006). Conducting research to understand subjects such as substance abuse is an important part of personality assessments. When conducting research through observation it is important to be objective and not let personal bias affect what is being observed (Aiken, & Groth-Marnat, 2006). Being able to separate observation from interpretation is one of many guidelines for research through observation and to minimize bias in observation the researcher is given minimal information about the reason for the research and no details on specifics of hypotheses or any expected outcomes (Aiken, & Groth-Marnat, 2006). In one research study done by Assessment tested the hypothesis that the relationship between present-moment observation and substance use is moderated by the tendency to be nonjudgmental and nonreactive toward the observed stimuli (Eisenlohr-Moul, Walsh,......

Words: 1086 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Heritage Assessment

...Heritage Assessment: Cultural Differences Jennifer L. Moul Grand Canyon University: NRS-429V March 30, 2014 Heritage Assessment: Cultural Differences Heritage assessment tools are used as a guide to assist in developing plans based on an indivudals cultural assssement. Heritage assessment tools prompt the interviewer to ask questions that pertain to their family’s background such as parent origins, race, relgious beliefs, customs, and practices. Gaining knowledge of an individual’s background will allow a health care professional to build plans that will be achievable. Achieving optimal health requires assessment and treating the individual human being. Reflecting on Jean Watson’s theory around caring, “Theory specifically involves the caring of a person’s mind, body, and soul” (Zerwekh & Claborn, 2009). Watson’s 10 carative factors represent the human caring values, the following factors are essential and necessary to understand and treat the whole-human being: Maintain humanistic view, Promote faith and hope, sensitivity of oneself and others, development of trust, acceptance of feelings positive or negative, systematic approach to problem solving, teaching and learning, create a healing environment, support the gratification of needs, allow for spiritualism. Recognizing the Most Precious and Powerful Source is the Human Being (Edelman, Mandel, & Elizabeth. 2014), defines culture “as an element of ethnicity, refers to integrated patterns of human behavior......

Words: 1026 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

The Social

...contemporary racism: From aversive racism to the common ingroup identity model. Journal of Social Issues. 61(3), 615-639. Plant, E. & Devine, P. (1998). Internal and external motivation to respond without prejudice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 811–832. 3. Allport, G. (1954, 1980). The nature of prejudice (p. 13). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. 4. Kunda, Z. & Oleson, K. (1997). When exceptions prove the rule: How extremity of deviance determines the impact of deviant examples on stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 72(5), 965–979. 5. Newsweek, November 25, 1974, p. 39. 6. Gould, S. (1977). Ever since Darwin: Reflections on natural history (p. 243). New York: Norton. Chapter 7 473 7. Pearson, K., & Moul, M. (1925). The problem of alien immigration into Great Britain, illustrated by an example of Russian and Polish Jewish children. Annals of Eugenics, 1, 5–127. 8. Gould, S. (1996). The mismeasure of man. New York: Norton. 9. Ibid.; Shields, S. (1975). Functionalism, Darwinism, and the psychology of women. American Psychologist, 30 (7), 739–754. 10. Janis, I., & Field, P. (1959). Sex difference and personality factors related to persuasibility. In C. I. Hovland & I. L. Janis (Eds.), Personality and persuasibility (pp. 55–68). New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. 11. Sistrunk, F., & McDavid, J. (1971). Sex variable in conforming behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 17, 202–207. 12. Ayers, I. (1991). Fair driving:......

Words: 208005 - Pages: 833

Premium Essay

Black Men and Prostate Cancer

...scientists have made great progress in understanding how certain changes In DNA can cause normal cells to grow abnormally and form cancers (ACS,2014). Figure 1 illustrates stages 1-4 of Prostate cancer: Stage 1-4 National Cancer Institute: Stages of Prostate Cancer July 2014 The NCI (2014) describes As Prostate Cancer progresses from Stage I to Stage IV, the cancer cells grow within the prostate, through the outer layer of the prostate into nearby tissue, and then lymph nodes or other parts of the body. For black men, age and family history are the biggest predictors for the disease (Cancer Prevention, 2011).Having a father or brother with prostate cancer can double the chances of being diagnosed with the disease. Research provided by Moul (2004) states, Year after year more patients present with prostate cancer at increasingly younger ages and with earlier stage disease. The ACS (2014) recommends black men discuss screening options with doctors by age 40 or 45 if several close relatives have been diagnosed with the disease before 65. If the cancer is caught at an early stage, most men will not experience any symptoms. However, some men will experience symptoms such as a frequent, hesitant, or burning urination, difficulty in having an erection, and pain in lower back (Prostate Cancer Foundation, 2014). Early detection screenings consist of the Prostate Specific Antigen screening and the Digital Rectal Exam. The rate at which Prostate Cancer is......

Words: 9539 - Pages: 39

Free Essay

Serotonin Levels in Antisocial Boys with High Levels of Cu Traits

...CA critical review of ‘An exploration of the serotonin system in antisocial boys with high levels of callous-unemotional traits’ by C. Moul, C. Dobson-Stone, J. Brennan, D. Howes and M. Dadds (2013) Introduction: Aggressiveness is a complicated study due to the fact that it does not act as an integral trait, and increased interest towards the matter of anti-social behaviour is partly explained by the apparent escalation of aggression in contemporary society (Popova, 2006). The human expression of anger is due to a combination of endocrine, neural and behavioural mechanisms and as such, a central question of human history. Children with aggressive behaviour form a heterogeneous population in relation to certain subtypes of aggressive antisocial behaviour. Callous-unemotional traits (e.g. absence of emotions and blame) are well-studied and temperamentally tied in with acute and persistent antisocial expression in children, which holds the risk for progressing psychopathy later in life (Frick & Viding, 2009) Serotonin levels are thought to contribute to childhood aggressive and antisocial behaviour, which can lead to expression later in adulthood (Raine, 2002). Thus, genetic factors are an inseparable part of the nature of antisocial behaviour, as demonstrated by twin research that has shown that heritability is likely to determine various forms of aggression and personality factors, such as impulsivity and callous-unemotional traits (Moffitt, 2005). Despite the......

Words: 2757 - Pages: 12