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International Business Management

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巴西经济增长 政局潜在不稳定因素
张宝宇

关于巴西当前的政治经济形势,笔者提出以下3个基本看法,以期共同探讨。 (一)经济形势明显好转,但基础并不坚实。1990年至1992年巴西经济连续3年处于停滞状态。然而,自1992年最后一个季度起,经济形势渐趋好转。在工业生产方面,汽车、拖拉机、柴油机、电子产品、电力等都取得了较大幅度的增长。由于销售市场看好,企业家充分利用闲置设备,纷纷投资更新设备以扩大生产,把更大的发展希望寄托于未来。在农业生产方面,1993年是自1986年以来巴西农业生产形势最好的一年,粮食产量可达7600万吨。更重要的是农业生产的发展主要靠自筹资金而不是依靠银行贷款。外贸总额估计可达624亿美元,其中出口额380亿美元,进口额240亿美元,但通货膨胀仍居高不下。对于巴西1993年的经济形势,巴西舆论界作以下概括:工业的进军号又重新吹响,生产停滞即将过去,通货膨胀猖狂如故。巴西官方对 1993年经济形势非常乐观,认为1993年巴西国内生产总值可望增长500。若果然如此,这将是自1986年以来最好的成绩。更有乐观者认为,国民生产总值可能达到或超过6%,从而超过智利、阿根廷和墨西哥。但包括拉美经委会在内的国际权威机构对巴西的经济形势持更加谨慎的态度。国际货币基金组织甚至认为,巴西经济在1993年仍将处于衰退之中。笔者认为,1993年巴西经济形势虽已取得明显好转,但只是恢复性增长,不能估计过高。 从宏观经济环境来考察,导致巴西经济形势好转的原因是多方面的。诸如国外市场的相对扩大,国外资金流入增加,外债偿还期推迟,在部分行业中,国家、企业和工人签订新的契约,从而形成新的关系,使生产稳定运行。利率下调也是极为重要的条件。1992年12月30日,佛朗哥总统向全国发表演说时指出,国家面临的衰退局面不能再继续下去。并表示他的政府不能接受其前任科洛尔政府的正统的反通货膨胀政策。这种政策将降低利率列为财政收支取得平衡之后的目标,因而它是以恶化经济形势为代价的。佛朗哥政府则以降低利率来诱导生产投资的恢复和扩大。1992年利率为42%, 1993年降至16%。利率的降低有利于扩大生产性贷款,也因减少了金融投机活动的利润而使资金转向生产领域,从而导致生产增长。 在1993年经济的恢复增长过程中,前向关联产业的带头增长作用非常明显。汽车工业1993年上半年产量估计达62.5万辆,是自1980年以来同期最高水平。8月份生产汽车达13.4万辆,是自1957年以来的36年间月产量最高纪录。民用建筑业经过13个“冬天”之后,迎来了可喜的“春天”。以圣保罗城为例,1992年上半年出售民用住宅仅58栋,1993年协1季度即销售124栋。建筑业的繁荣与13年前的景气尚有不同之处。当时主要是靠国家的资助和补贴,而现在的民用建筑业主要靠自身融资发展。汽车工业与民用建筑业的发展带动了一系列相关行业的发展。 近年来巴西企业生产率的提高对1993年经济形势的好转起了重要作用。在科洛尔执 政期间,由于紧缩银根,国内市场萎缩,也由于放宽进口,巴西企业面临来自国外产品的激烈竞争。在这种严峻的考验面前,巴西企业不得不进行技术改进和提高管理水平, 以质优价廉的产品求得生存和发展,生产率 因此而得以提高。这种情况在巴西被称为 “悄悄的革命”。据统计,大圣保罗地区的A、B、 C、 D地区的生产率提高了30%至50%。生产一件产品的时间由平均10小时降为2小时;产品出厂价格下降20%,库存减少80%。另外,最近几年,农村也在发生悄悄的变化。国家补贴的不足迫使农业生产者更加有效地使用自己不多的资金。采用良种、改进耕作技术,使农业生产率提高了约30%。 1983年玉米单产1700公斤,1993年增至2400公斤。因此,可以说,1993年巴西经济形势的好转主要是由私人部门带动的,而政府所提供的合作是很有限的。 日前巴西月通货膨胀率达30%以上;税制混乱,税负不均;国营企业私有化进展缓慢;财政赤字1993年估计为2.7%,估计1994年可能达到7.6%。这一切都说明,巴西的宏观经济环境并未达到理想程度。特别是由于银行利润过大,生产企业的资金积累受到严重影响。 1993年上半年,巴西最大的私人商业银行巴西贴现银行所获利润为1.6亿美元,紧随其后的是伊塔乌银行,利润约1.3亿美元,远远高出发达国家银行利润。1987年至1991年的4年中,巴西银行的利润率为13%,同期欧洲银行的利润率大约是9%,美国银行是7%。不仅如此,与本国的非金融企业相比,巴西银行的利润率显得更高。1992年,500家非金融企业的利润率为2.2%,而50家大银行的平均利润率是9.8%。银行因高通货膨胀而大大获利,高利率反过来又加剧了通货膨胀。佛朗哥总统认为,必须进行银行改革,以使其不能获取超额利润,而使利润降至可以接受的水平”①。 由此可见,巴西的宏观经济环境并未得到明显好转,199年国民经济运行良好并非建立在坚实的基础上。对于1993年经济形势,巴西学术界认为,1993年巴西经济表现出“肌肉痉挛”性质。 (二)政治改革正在深入进行,联邦中央权力趋于集中,经济对外更加开放,因此也必将引起更激烈的社会利益冲突。在政治方面,1993年已经进行和正在进行的大事主要有3件。其一,4月22日就国体与政体的选择问题举行了全国公民投票,最后决定巴西仍实行总统制共和国形式。其二,联邦众议院目前正在为1994年大选制定新的“竞赛规则”,针对当年科洛尔竞选总统时所发生的弊端及其他问题,众议院已提出一系列修改意见,诸如提出总统候选人的政党所应具备的资格,个人和企业可以向竞选者提供资助的规模,等等。1994年大选将有35000名候选人参加竞选州议员、联邦参议员与众议员、州长和共和国总统。其三,自10月6日起,议会正在对1988年宪法进行修订。 1988年宪法是在1985年文人执政后对军人政权时期的196 9年宪法作重大修改基础上制定的。1988年宪法对原来州的建制曾作过重大变更,它强化了议会的权力,肯定了自由企业精神,提出了有关“巴酉企业”的新概念。它的最大特点还在于充分规定了公民的权利和义务,因此,被誉为“公民宪法”。但1983年宪法的某些规定限制了巴西前进的步伐,不适应当前国内外形势的需要,起不到指导国家发展的作用。据报道,巴西国会将可能对1988年宪法中的税制、社会福利、外资经营领域、国家垄断范围、政治改革 (包括政党制度、县级选举等)、公务员制度,特别是对联邦、州与市3级关系作重新调整。 自1891年成立共和国时起,巴西联邦中央、州与市之间的三级关系就没有得到很好解决。中央集权与分权交替占主导地位。独裁统治时期中央集权占上风,“民主政府”时期则倾向于分权。1988年宪法是政权由军人独裁转向文人民主政府时期制定的,因此,存在着反集权倾向,它使州、市过多地参与了联邦的收入分配。联邦所得税收入的47%和工业产品税的JI%转移到州、市手中,而在军人统治时期这一比重仅为12%0间题还在于这部宪法对3级政府的义务规定得不够明细,因而往往相互推委,使联邦无法操作。这次宪法修订就是要重新确立中央与地方的关系,即在联邦中央、州与市3者之间建立起新的“公约”。预计本次修宪还可能对外资经营活动范围作出较为宽松的规定。税制混乱和税务负担不合理也是巴西当前经济领域中一个最重要的问题。它导致全国13万家企业偷税、漏税。修宪后,将扩大税基,降低税负,同时提高税收的使用效益。 修宪涉及调整各阶层、不同社会利益集团的利益关系,因此已引起社会的强烈反响。首先,在对待是否修宪的问题上存在着3种意见:以全国工业联合会为代表的一派主张进行尽可能广泛的修改;以巴西民主运动党、巴西社会民主党和自由阵线党为代表的一派主张进行小范围的修改;以劳工党、巴西律师组织和大学生全国联盟为代表的一派则主张不定期推迟修订。其次,对于修宪内容提出不同的主张。一些党派、行会和团体纷纷集会,讨论修宪问题并向国会提出议案。在原宪法制定过程中曾为捍卫其自身利益而成立的农村民主联盟,又重新动员起来进军巴西利亚,以维护已取得的利益。所以,宪法的修订必然费时而且充满斗争。 (三)社会问题依然严重。前总统科洛尔曾因腐败行为而于1992年12月29日被议会最终裁决离职,成为巴西103年共和国历史上第1个被废黜的总统,引起世界舆论的震动。然而,政府高级官员的腐败行为并未就此终止。被认为有可能出任下届总统的巴西民主运动党主席奥雷斯特斯·克恰,在科洛尔下台后又成了被指控的目标,因而不得不辞去党的主席职务。现政府的前财长埃利塞乌·雷德也因涉嫌一宗贪污案于1993年5月辞职。同年10月,又暴出一批议员的贪污、受贿案件,使议会陷入混乱。巴西政府官员的腐败行为之所以接连发生,据认为原因是这场反腐败斗争只针对受贿的一头,而没有触及行贿的一头。因此,巴西的腐败现象具有更深层的社会原因。 南部分裂主义活动一度非常猖獗。南部系指巴拉那、圣卡塔利纳和南里约格朗德3个州。这3个州白人居多,是所谓“更欧洲化的地区”。它的开发较晚,但发展较快。自19世纪20年代后,由于受到德国人、意大利人和斯拉夫人等欧洲移民迁入的推动,经济开发速度加快,它已成为巴西的发达地区之一。以人均国内生产总值指数衡量,1990年全巴西为100,南部地区为111,而东北部只有540 1993年以来,主张3个州独立的活动愈演愈烈,出现了约20余个独立运动组织,其中一个名叫伊尔顿·马克斯的德国人后裔领导的运动主张3个州合并,成立高乔幡帕共和国。该组织以各种传播媒体宣传独立的好处。它认为,“一旦分裂,我们将成为第一世界”。主张3个州独立另建国家的还有一个称为“南部是我的国家”运动。还有个组织主张将南里约格朗德州一分为二,一部分归巴西,另一部分独立,建立一个名叫皮拉蒂尼(Piratini)的共和国,并把首都定在佩洛塔斯(Pelotas)。巴西联邦共和国政府对此持坚决反对态度。佛朗哥总统已责成司法部和联邦警察局依法制止这一分裂活动。目前看来事态已得到控制,但此事件所产生的文化与经济原因并未消失,应当说,分裂活动依然是潜在的隐患。 暴力已成为巴西国民的第二位死因。1993年7月,里约热内卢军警凶残地枪杀街头青少年。同月,军警为报复黑帮团伙杀害警察而闯入里约热内卢贫民区,致使无辜贫民10余人死亡。8月,一些淘金者在亚马孙地区袭击土著人村落,打死数10名印第安人。上述事件引起社会各界强烈反响,巴西的国际形象再次受损。据巴西卫生部的调查,1980年16.2%的巴西男人成为暴力的牺牲品,1988年这一比重增至18.87%,其增长势头至今未得到扼制。因暴力死亡的比率最高的地区是贫穷的东北部。值得思考的是,暴力的受害者已失去对国家机器的信任。据巴西地理统计局的调查,从1987年10月至1988年9月期间的失盗者中,有68%的人没有向警方报案。在他们看来,报案不仅不会得到保护,反而可能招惹是非。 总之,1993年巴西的经济形势虽有好转,但继续增长的基础并不牢固,政治局势因各阶层和各利益集团之间利益的重新分配与调整而不稳。社会问题众多,已成为严重隐患。佛朗哥总统的国民支持率在急剧下降。70年代尼克松曾说过,“巴西向何处去,拉丁美洲也将向何处去”。而今,巴西在拉美的经济主导地位已被其他拉美国家所取代的趋势,看来还很难说已经得到扭转。 巴西严重形势的形成主要是由于深刻的社会与政治原因。巴西存在着强大的利益集团,它们抵制各种与已不利的改革。自军政权结束以来,巴西处丁激烈的社会变革之中,政治制度受到前所未有的压力,并陷入混乱之中。国内党派林立(截至1992年5月,已有约40余个),至今未形成几个主导党派。佛朗哥总统在其以往的政治生涯中,虽然已先后参加过6个不同的政党和联盟,但从未成为一名具有政治影响力的领袖。科洛尔总统被废黜后,他以无党派身分就任总统,没有政党根基。他的政府是以巴西民主运动党、巴西社会民主党和白由阵线党3党联合为基础的。但由于党派利益关系,3大政党之间,以及政府与党派之间不断发生冲突,政府的政策得不到议会及时通过或被否决,即使通过了的决议,也往往难以贯彻执行。但是,也正是由于政党力量过于分散,才没有形成能与佛朗哥争夺地位的势力,加上巴西军队目前仍由维宪派执掌,尚未表现出干预政治的意向,佛朗哥政府才得以执政直至任届期满。

____________________________ ①巴西《请看》杂志,1993年8月11日。…...

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...(1)INTRODUCTION When doing business in an international scale, it is important to understand what international business really means. Therefore according to Rugman & Collinson (2012) international business can be defined as “The study of transactions taking place across national borders for the purpose of satisfying the needs of individuals and organizations. Some of the well known International businesses (MNE’s) are Wal-Mart, Toyota Motors, General Motors and Volkswagen for their performance, moreover annual revenue. Decisions with regard to movement in to global arena should be taken with care as there is certain degree of risk involved.  There should be value in moving to different markets (eg- An organization may lack the skills needed to make use of the potential-Integrate R&D activities or incompatible cultures  The cost of managing complex infrastructure should not –outweigh the benefits of increased scale  Some industries posses’ particular globalization challenges for example companies operating in the manufacturing sector (automobile makers) often faces complexities in integration and particularly vulnerable to economic slowdowns which reduces their ability to expand. (Alexander & Korine, 2008) According to Wall & Rees (2004) the factors to be considered when investing abroad can be classified in to four areas-Supply factors, demand factors, Political factors and others. Under supply factors, production costs, Distribution costs and access to key......

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...Starbucks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..6 Why Starbucks – TATA will work?....................................................................................................7 Starbucks Competitive Environment…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..8 Starbucks PEST Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………9-10 Corporate Strategy of Starbucks……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….10 SWOT Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….11 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12 References………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………13-14 Introduction Globalisation means growth of a company to global or international boundaries. It is consider being a process where the economic, cultural and social activity of a particular organization is carried to an international level. It helps in the exchange of ideas, goods and services between the people of different nations which overall leads to the expansion of the society of a country. To expand globally, a company has three key questions to answer: “The essential act of entrepreneurship is the new entry. It can be accomplished by entering new or established markets with new or existing goods or services. New entry is the act of launching a new venture, either by a start-up firm, through an existing firm or via internal corporate venturing” (Lumpkin and Dess, 1966) Starbucks a very popular coffee house started back in 1971 where......

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International Business Management

...regions is that they have a larger pool of potential customers. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, about 96 per cent of consumers and two-thirds of the world's purchasing power reside outside the U.S. Sources of revenue from other countries help businesses survive periods of low domestic sales. Access to labour is another advantage that multinational companies enjoy over other companies. A firm that has operations in many countries can set up its production operations in China or India to take advantage of cheap labour and then sell products in more affluent countries in North America and Europe. Companies that have operations only in the U.S. have difficulty while competing with multinational companies. While multinational companies can take advantage of cheap labour, they might also be subject to higher taxes and have to pay more for other things such as transporting goods. Many countries impose taxes called duties or tariffs on imports and exports, making it more costly to sell goods to consumers in other countries. As well, there are some disadvantages while facing multinational corporate. A potential disadvantage that multinational companies face is that they are subject to more laws and regulations than other companies. Certain countries do not allow a company to run its business the way it operates in other countries, and each country has different labour and business laws. Multinational companies can also face intellectual property issues that......

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...disadvantages for Tata tea? In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to size, output, or scale of operation, with cost per unit of output generally decreasing with increasing scale as fixed costs are spread out over more units of output. The purpose of mergers and acquisitions of Tata Tea is reaching the operational efficiency in the worldwide The restructuring combined with business strategy will bring many benefits for Tata tea brand in the international tea market; to be a global brand, gaining economics of scale, holding more market share and generating higher profits. However, there are not only benefits, Tata Tea have also some challenges from Economics of scale. Benefits * Helping the company easy to raise capital, streamlining operations, reducing costs, making ensure a global professional sourcing, bringing economic advantages of scale and creating conditions for Tata group in enhancing distribution network. * Helping the company have global of scale to compete with the other international company. * Contributing to the global presence of the company, accessible, packaged and sale to many markets and different distribution channels. * Helping the company to manage cost and human resources effectively. * Getting chance to look up a stable input material from tea plantations on around the world, reducing risk relevant to operational varies. Tata is advantage about the source of material by owned......

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...want the ability to opt out of online tracking. Ethical dilemma in this case study is Facebook monitors its subscribers and then sells the information to advertisers and app developers. 2) What is the relationship of privacy to Facebook business model? The relation between user’s privacy and Facebook business model is important because Advertising is the mainly revenue of Facebook. 70% of its five million users log in every day and they all between 18 and 24 that advertisers want to collaborate with Facebook to make profits for both.Talking privacy to Facebook is a bit ironic. Facebook’s entire business model is based on aggregation and sharing user information. They give people a free social media platform to use and in turn sell advertising and insights based on what they learn about user. Facebook has massive capabilities to collect, store and analyze data.This allows Facebook to sell much targeted advertising. Therefore, privacy is the Facebook business model. Facebook states its regulations concerning to the rights and responsibilities derive from the Facebook Principles, and govern the relationship with users and others who interact with Facebook.  3) Describe the weaknesses of Facebook’s privacy policies and features. What management, organization and technology factors have contributed to those weaknesses? The weakness behind Facebook’s privacy issues was a lack of communication between Facebook and its users. Users were not aware that they were able to control......

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...8 Vertical Collaboration in the Supply Chain Sanda Renko Faculty of Economics & Business University of Zagreb Croatia 1. Introduction Supply chain is a research area which has attracted the attention of many researchers for more than 20 years (Mehrjerdi, 2009) due to costs and time involved in managing materials, information and financial flows from the point of origin to the point of consumption. The simplest definition of the supply chain suggests (Waters, 2003) that it consists of series of activities and companies that move materials through on their journey from initial suppliers to final customers. On that journey each company somehow is adding value to the product. However, due to an increasing competition on the market and due to more demanding and more sophisticated customers, the picture of supply chain is getting more complicated. If we take into consideration that many companies have crossed their borders and have included some geographically separate operations into their supply chain, it is very difficult to successfully integrate and to manage all related activities. In the praxis, it is normally that every company is working for its own benefit resulting in duplicating effort and reducing productivity, lowering efficiency, higher costs and decreasing the level of customer services. However, environmental uncertainty expressed through shortening product life cycle, expanding product proliferation, and more demanding customers requires......

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...International Business Management Set up and operate a Business in Foreign Country Abstract This paper deals with the international business. It emphasizes on the means to start the business and the cost associated with the initiation of the business. It also describes the most important aspect of managing human resource. Because of the competitive environment, the need to do the business internationally has increased. This paper provides the overview of the two countries i.e. china and South Africa. Broad description of the legal processes that were supposed to be followed by the company to initiate business in the China has been explained. Apart from this, the staffing of local and expatriate staff along with the labor organization and legislation of the foreign country has been described. Therefore, the paper provides detailed analysis of the conditions that should be kept in mind while establishing business in the foreign country. Introduction International business is a term, which is used collectively to describe issues relating to the firm’s operations with interests in numerous countries. These firms are sometimes referred as multinational corporations. The main area of concern in the international business is the cultural considerations. These considerations include dissimilarity in law and legal systems, living standards, language barriers, climate and many more (Cherunilam, 2005). All these issues need to be overcome for an MNC in order to obtain success in...

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