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Finance

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국제금융론 01분반 김인배교수님
이 논문은 환율에 대해 새로운 시각을 제공한다. 이 논문은 5가지 부분으로 나눠진다. 첫째로 도입부분, 두 번째는 환율제도의 정치적 경제에 대한 토론을 다루고 있다. 또한 대한민국의 1990년에 있었던 관료제에 최적화된 정권교체에 대한 설명을 제공한다. 세번째로는, 실증적 작업의 첫 부분으로서 이익집단의 압력을 반영하고 있는 변수들을 가지고 환율 등식을 계산하고 보여준다. 이 등식에 기초해서 네번째 부분에서 이 논문의 주요 가설을 검증한다. 그리고 마지막으로 결론을 내리고 있다. 먼저, 대략적인 아웃라인에 대해 말하자면 어떤 면에서는 이익집단의 후생이 제도보다는 세금에 더 많이 영향을 받고 있고, 다른 면에서는 이익집단의 요구를 수용하기 위해 환율을 조작할 때, 상이한 제도가 상이한 수준의 비용을 관료들에게 부과한다는 것이다. 환율 제도의 관료 장려 모델을 살펴보자면, 관료 사업 기능은 두 가지 주장으로 구성된다. 공공의 이익과 특정 환율을 얻기 위한 이익집단에 의한 로비로부터 비롯된 사적인 이익이 바로 그것이다. 결과적으로, 관료들의 유용함을 최대화한 인센티브가 얼마나 쉽게 그들이 환율을 조작할 수 있는지를 보여준다. 다음으로 한국의 경우에 대해 살펴보면 1990년 정권교체는 기본적으로 고정된 체제에서 좁은 규모의 정권으로의 이동이다. 즉 그래프에서 보여주는 FLX에 좀 더 가까워지는 것이다. 섹션 3에서, 논문은 이익집단의 전체의 시계를 따르는 수준 결정에 미치는 그들의 영향력의 존재를 입증하기 위한 환율 방정식을 보여준다. 환율 결정의 이익집단 모델에 대한 주요 가설을 살펴보고자 한다. 첫 번째는, 수입업자와 수출업자간의 압력다툼이다. 수출비율이 높아질수록 통화가치를 떨어뜨리기 위한 로비에 대한 인센티브는 커진다. 두 번째는, 외채와 대외채권 간의 압력다툼이다. 순외채가 높아질수록 환율의 가치를 오르게 하는 압력의 가능성이 커진다. 다음 세 번째는 선거효과이다. 선거직전에, J커브 효과에 의해 일시적으로 수출을 증가시키기 위해 통화의 가치를 올리고, 수입가격이 감소하는 동안에는 국내가격수준을 일시적으로 오르고 있는 실제수입에 맞춰 낮추는 경향이 있다는 것이다. 그래프와 식에 의해 확인된 바로는 수입업자와 수출업자의 압력은 관료가 훨씬 통화를 변동시키는 것에 있어 주저하는 경향이 있다는 것을 내포하고 있다. 폐쇄경제일수록, 교환능력이 더 작을수록, 또한 자유시장체제가 미숙할수록 그러하다. 그래프와 식을 통해 논문은 수입업자와 수출업자들의 압력은 MAR(market average regime)의 도입 전 3년동안 환율에 영향을 미치지는 않지만 대략 조정 1년 뒤에는 로비의 힘을 다시 얻기 시작한다고 결론을 내린다. 어쨋든간 이렇게 새로운 시각으로 살펴본 그래프와 식들을 통해 전통적 모델보다 환율의 내생적 변화에 대해 더 강력한 설득력을 제공하고 있다. 아직 경제원론과 미시경제학을 수강했을 뿐인 2학년 인 내가 3학년 전공 과목인 국제금융론을 수강신청하면서 많은 걱정이 앞섰다. 경제를 공부하는 것에 대해 많은 흥미와 관심을 가지고 있다는 것만으로 너무 패기를 부리는 것이 아닌가하고 말이다. 수업을 들으며 내가 그 중에서도 가장 어려워하는 부분인 환율부분에서는 머리가 아팠고, 이해하기까지 혼자 공부하는 시간을 많이 필요로 했다. 사실 이 논문을 읽으면서도, 그래프와 식이 나올 때는 정말이지 앞이 깜깜하였다. 게다가 영어로 쓰여진 논문이기에 영어 지진아인 나는 기에 눌렸다해도 과언이 아니다. 완벽히 이해되지 않는 상태로 더듬더듬 해석을 해가며 차분히 읽어보며 교수님이 말씀하신 ‘환율을 바라보는 새로운 시각’이라는 것에 최대한 초점을 맞추어 읽으려 노력하였다. 사실 원래 있던 환율에 대한 전통모델에 대해서도 무지한 상태인데 새로운 모델을 가지고 환율의 내생적 변화에 대해 읽고 있자니 힘들기도 했다. 그리고 얼마나 많은 연구에 연구를 거듭해야 새로운 관점을 제기할 수 있고 그것을 분석할 수 있는 힘이 생기는지 새삼 대단하다고 생각했다. 그리고 나의 꿈인 금융전문가가 되기 위해 나 또한 앞으로 부단히 노력하고 경제 문제에 대해 깊이 생각하는 힘을 길러야겠다고 다짐했다. 쉽지 않았지만 스스로의 힘으로 읽고 요약해보니 매우 뿌듯한 시간들이었다.…...

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