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Bc Pakers

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ASPETTI ECONOMICI DELLA CONVERSIONE DELL’ENERGIA SOLARE IN ELETTRICA
Solar Energy Report, Aprile 2014

Il report del gruppo di ricerca del Politecnico di Milano, l’Energy and Strategy Group, ormai giunto alla sua sesta edizione, esamina come ogni anno le principali evoluzioni del settore, dal punto di vista normativo, degli approcci di business e soprattutto dal punto di vista delle opportunità economiche che il comparto del fotovoltaico può e potrà ancora creare.

Un’edizione, quella del 2014, che arriva in un momento cruciale per il settore, segnato da un lato dalla fine del sistema di incentivi e dall’altro l’emergere del mercato in grid parity (punto in cui l'energia elettrica prodotta a partire da ha lo stesso prezzo dell'energia tradizionale prodotta tramite fonti di energia tradizionali ), favorito anche da una normativa di riferimento in fase di adeguamento. La nuova fase del solare è caratterizzata da un nuovo contesto normativo che crea, di fatto, nuove condizioni di mercato e nuovi contesti competitivi in Italia.
Il periodo di passaggio dal fotovoltaico con incentivi al fotovoltaico senza incentivi si è di fatto esaurito ed oggi, correndo verso la grid parity, si ridefiniscono nuovi assetti e nuovi modelli di business, nuovi modelli che toccano tutti gli attori della filiera del solare: dalla produzione dei wafer ai servizi di gestione e manutenzione degli impianti già in funzione. In particolare il cosiddetto Operation & Maintenance dei grandi impianti rappresenta una concreta prospettiva per tutti quegli operatori del segmento industriale e commerciale che vedono ridotta la loro quota di mercato.
In Italia gli impianti installati, impianti di grandi dimensioni, sono molti. Si tratta di gestirli e farli lavorare al meglio delle possibilità.

Dopo la consueta analisi dei trend di mercato del comparto nel 2013, il rapporto individua alcune interessanti “chiavi di sviluppo” del settore.

Primo. I SEU, i Sistemi Efficienti di Utenza (ovvero sistemi di produzione e consumo elettrico che mettono in collegamento diretto il produttore ed il consumatore finale), offrono le più promettenti prospettive e possono rappresentare un valido “incentivo” allo sviluppo del fotovoltaico industriale e commerciale. I SEU offriranno vantaggi competitivi sia per i produttori che per i consumatori di energia attraverso la vendita diretta dal produttore al consumatore.
Secondo. Lo storage ed i sistemi di accumulo del fotovoltaico offrono la possibilità di aumentare l’autoconsumo domestico e industriale procurando risparmio sull’acquisto dell’energia. Si inizia a parlare, a tal proposito, del mercato dell’auto-consumo.
Terzo. I sistemi di gestione “intelligente” dell’energia prodotta dal fotovoltaico. Qui si vede l’emergere di nuovi prodotti sul mercato che facilitano e massimizzano l’autoconsumo, esattamente come per i sistemi di stoccaggio temporaneo dell’energia.
Quarto. Le opportunità di internazionalizzazione per le imprese italiane. Anche se il fotovoltaico in Italia subisce un certo momentaneo rallentamento, nel mondo il comparto del solare sta attraversando un periodo di forte fermento e questo rappresenta un’ottima opportunità di business per le imprese italiane che, in qualche modo, hanno già conosciuto bene la tecnologia fotovoltaica.
Quinto. Le opportunità di un nuovo settore di business: l’ Operation & Maintenance (O&M). Si tratta della gestione e della “presa in carico” della manutenzione, monitoraggio e controllo dei numerosi impianti già in funzione. Si parla qui, ovviamente, delle centrali solari e degli impianti industriali e commerciali. Questi sono i 5 punti chiave analizzati nel rapporto. Questi sono i 5 pilastri che caratterizzeranno la nuova era e le nuove sfide del fotovoltaico in Italia.

È bene sottolineare che particolare attenzione viene posta sugli sviluppi del fotovoltaico nel mercato globale e italiano

Il mercato

Negli anni appena trascorsi il mercato annuo a livello globale è cresciuto.
La Cina ha più che raddoppiato i MW installati acquisendo la leadership mondiale in termini di installazioni annue, leadership che ha invece perso l'Europa mentre sono cresciuti notevolmente di importanza sia il mercato giapponese che quello statunitense.
Relativamente al mercato europeo si è registrata una contrazione significativa del mercato sia in Germania che in Italia mentre è rimasta stabile la quota nel Regno Unito e si è registrata una importante crescita nella Romania.
In Italia i segmenti commerciale ed industriale sono quelli che hanno mostrato la contrazione più significativa.
Meno accentuata è stata la riduzione del fatturato complessivo ascrivibile al segmento residenziale.
In contrazione anche il volume di affari del segmento “centrali”.
Si è consolidato dunque il trend di ritorno alle “prime fasi” del mercato fotovoltaico italiano, con impianti di piccole e medie dimensioni a guidare le installazioni.
Ciò è principalmente riconducibile all'effetto che le misure di incentivazione “indiretta” (quali le detrazioni fiscali) hanno avuto sulla fattibilità del business plan, oltre che alla maggiore quota di auto-consumo (superiore al 50%) che, soprattutto nei segmenti commerciali, l'investimento riesce a garantire.
Analizzando l'andamento annuale delle installazioni nel segmento residenziale si nota come questo costituisca il vero “zoccolo duro” del mercato italiano.

Le prospettive per il mercato italiano al 2020

Per il periodo 2015-2020 è possibile stimare un mercato di poco inferiore ad 1GW.
Circa il 40% del mercato continuerà ad essere rappresentato dal segmento residenziale il cui ritmo delle installazioni potrà però ridursi a causa de:
1) riduzione della detrazione fiscale dal 50 al 36% ;
2) una sostanziale stabilità nei costi delle componenti dell'impianto;
3) la diffusione di sistemi di “storage” con il normale effetto di inerzia legato allo sviluppo della nuova tecnologia.
Più del 50% del mercato potrà essere costituito dalle taglie commerciali e industriali per effetto de:
1) la diffusione dei Sistemi Efficienti di Utenza in maniera progressiva a partire dal 2015;
2) l'abilitazione di investimenti anche su impianti di taglia maggiore – anche oltre i 200 KW – grazie alla possibilità di vendere l'energia al cliente finale tramite opportuni modelli contrattuali.
Infine meno del 5% del mercato potrà comunque essere rappresentato dalle centrali solari in grado di sfruttare siti ad elevatissimo irraggiamento e PMZ (prezzo medio zonale orario: valore al quale viene generalmente valorizzata l'energia elettrica immessa in rete dai grandi impianti multi-MW) storicamente più alto.
Tre sono le principali leve sulle quali la filiera deve agire per raggiungere il potenziale stimato per il futuro del mercato italiano:
1) una nuova value proposition con la quale approcciare il mercato stesso che tenga conto della massimizzazione dei risparmi ottenibili dall'investitore, cercando, per quanto possibile, di evitare al massimo l'utilizzo della rete;
2) un nuovo modello di business incentrato sull'integrazione di tecnologie per l'efficienza, l'auto-produzione e la gestione intelligente dell'energia, che renda l'impianto fotovoltaico non più l'unica soluzione, ma una delle tante tecnologie abilitanti per il risparmio energetico;
3) la necessità di sfruttare il processo di maturazione tecnologica di soluzioni chiave per l'auto-consumo, quali i sistemi di storage, l'auto elettrica, i sistemi di ricarica e gestione intelligente dei consumi che dovranno necessariamente evolvere verso una progressiva riduzione di prezzo.

Le opportunità di internazionalizzazione

A partire dal 2012 le imprese italiane hanno dovuto fronteggiare sia una forte competizione derivante dalla presenza di operatori esteri di grandi dimensioni in grado di proporre una politica di prezzo estremamente aggressiva, che la progressiva contrazione del mercato interno.
Per questi motivi diversi player hanno deciso di puntare sull'internazionalizzazione per cercare di cogliere opportunità di business offerte dai mercati emergenti in rapido sviluppo in cui le imprese italiane possono sfruttare il know-how tecnologico e manageriale nello sviluppo di progetti costruiti grazie all'esperienza sul mercato domestico.
Risultano di primario interesse per l'industria fotovoltaica italiana i Paesi dell'area mediterranea (Medio Oriente e Nord Africa con un I.A. compreso tra 2,4 e 2,8) che sono caratterizzati da una filiera ancora in fase di costituzione all'interno della quale anche i produttori di tecnologia del nostro Paese potranno trovare il loro spazio facilitati in tal senso anche dalla prossimità geografica.
Ulteriori Paesi ad elevato potenziale e, contemporaneamente, ad alto indice di attrattività sono quelli del Sud America (Brasile, Cile e Messico su tutti) e del Sud-Est Asiatico (Thailandia e Taiwan), che costituiscono le nuove frontiere per il mercato internazionale.…...

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